Bird flu could potentially
kill up to two million
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Americans and up to
81 million worldwide.
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Welcome and thank
you for joining us today.
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Yes Amber, 40
percent of the workforce
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could be off
leaving essential services
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we depend on unavailable.
Such as grocery stores,
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schools, ambulances, hospitals.
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Hi, I'm John Clark
and with me today is
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Dr. Amber Bell. Dr.
Bell is a doctor of science
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in physical
therapy, and Dr. Clark is a
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medical doctor and
member of the American College
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of Lifestyle
Medicine. Don't go away,
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bird flu can dramatically
change life as you know
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it today. We've
titled this talk Bird flu,
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the nature of the
beast. We wanna talk a
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little bit about what
bird flu is all about.
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You see such titles
on the news as not just
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for the birds and
nothing to tweet about,
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we wanna make
sure you understand
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what this bird flu
threat is all about.
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CNN Monday, December 13, 2004,
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the World Health
Organization warned of
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dire flue pandemic.
It has issued a dramatic
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warning that bird flu
will trigger an international
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pandemic that
could kill up to seven
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million people.
National Geographic News,
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May 25, 2005, world
unprepared for bird flu
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pandemic, experts
say, a global influenza
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pandemic like the
Spanish flu of 1918 could leave
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tens of millions
dead. Many experts insists
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that the world is unprepared and
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overdue for just
such a catastrophe.
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Reuters, May 27,
2005 states, is the U.S.
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prepared for bird flu pandemic?
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The United states
remains woefully unprepared
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for an influenza pandemic
that could kill millions
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of people. MSNBC,
May 23, 2006, possible
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human
transmission of bird flu probe.
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The World Health
Organization says it is
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investing an
outbreak of bird flu,
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passed from person to
person among members of
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one family in
Indonesia. CNN reported U.S.
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bird flu probably no
human thread fed say.
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Tuesday, August 15,
2006. Scientists have
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discovered possible
bird flu in two wild swans
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on the shore of Lake
Erie but it does not appear
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to be the much-feared
Asian strain that has
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ravaged poultry
and killed at least 138
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people elsewhere in the world.
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Well, you know
Amber as we see this flu
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being taunted in the
news and spreading around
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the globe and more
and more instances of it
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affecting humans we
need to remember that
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in the past
pandemics have happened.
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That's right, that
there has been diseases,
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we've called them
plagues often in the past
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or pestilences. There
was the bubonic plague
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14th century
Europe. A total of well over
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20 million people died as
a result of that in Europe
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and possibly 40
million worldwide and bubonic
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plague has even been
found recently as recently
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as 1997 in Southern
United States and its found
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to be multiple antibiotic
resistant. The cholera,
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this is the disease
that causes diarrhea,
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you become
dehydrated and it has passed
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around the world a
few times as a epidemic,
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has killed 20000
people in Egypt in 1947.
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It swept through Peru
in 1991, its been in the
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Southern United States.
Interestingly as a result
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of eating infected
shellfish. Experts claim
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smallpox killed more
than 100 million people prior
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to 1725, that's a lot
of people. And you know
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there has been a
number of epidemics in the
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United States,
there's been yellow fever,
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cholera, polio and of
course the AIDS epidemics
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that's going on
from 1981 till present.
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Has killed nearly half
a million and then there's
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been the past flu pandemics.
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We had the 1918
Spanish flu and 20 to 40
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million deaths
globally and I believe there are
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675,000 in just the
U.S. alone, that's right
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675,000. 1957, Asian
flu 1 to 4 million deaths
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worldwide and 70,000
in the United States.
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The Hong Kong flu there
is 1 to 4 million deaths
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and 34,000 in the U.S.
Well lets talk about the
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Spanish flu, you know
the Spanish flu is kind
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of a one more we're
thinking our bird flu
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could be like in
this present time.
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Government went up
to Alaska dug up some
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bodies that were in
permafrost that had died
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of the flu in 1918,
checked out the genes
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of that bird flu and
it had bird genes in it.
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And so while they
call it the Spanish flu and
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nobody knows why, it
really was a bird flu.
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And so the 1918 flu
we're gonna refer to
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instead of as the
Spanish flu as the 1918 bird
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flu throughout this
talk and it killed 25 to 50
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million worldwide.
There was millions in Asia,
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675,000 in United
States, 500,000 in Mexico,
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450,000 in Russia,
Italy 375,000, Britain 228,000
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and Canada 44,000
deaths due to this Spanish
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influenza or what
we're calling bird flu.
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And might I add, the
population of the world
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wasn't as great in
1918 as where it is now,
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geological impact, that's right,
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yeah in United
States alone there were only
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80 million people.
So you can see it was
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a higher percentage
than you might think of
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from today's
statistics. I was up north in
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Maine looking around
in a graveyard one day
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giving my kid a break
and it was a good place
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to play and I came
across this gravestone
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of Frank Dipalma,
born January 13, 1893,
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he died in Camp
Devens in September 27,
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1918 and obvious
1918 bird flu casualty and
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Fort Devens as we call
it today was a hot spot
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for the bird flu. I
think its important then to
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look back at that flu,
we can learn a lot from it.
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I know in March 11
by noon a 107 soldiers
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reported to the
infirmary at Fort Riley,
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Kansas complaining
of low-grade fever,
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sore throat,
headache, muscle aches,
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typical flu symptoms.
However within two days
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a total of 522
people were sick and some
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were close to death
with severe pneumonia.
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Alright, and
these were young man,
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alright, the ones that
we consider are usually
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having the strong
immune systems. That's right.
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Its interesting to
follow progression of that flu,
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it didn't stay in
Kansas for long, soon it was
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all over the military
ranks. Even sailors out
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in the middle of the
ocean were getting it and
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and then it
spread to the French,
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and the French civilians.
By April, China and Japan
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had it within two
weeks, then it went on to
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Africa and South
America by May. But
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this was the first
wave, there was a second
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wave that came along
later that was even more
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deadly. In October,
the same year in 1918 the
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American draft was
actually suspended due
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to pandemic, wow. As
Allies engaged Germany in
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a series of final
offenses, the flu was a major
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player in the overall
mortality and actually
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swung the outcome of
a lot of the battles.
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That's right Bell,
there was times there when
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the Allies were
expecting the Germans to attack
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and they didn't
attack, what's going on,
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we're expecting an
attack and Germans obviously
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had the bird flu
too, that's right.
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25 percent of our military
actually caught the flu.
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One million soldiers
and up to a 40 percent
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of the Navy may have
been infected as well.
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And if they look
at the overall numbers
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I believe it was
57,000 people died of the bird
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flu soldiers at that
time and only 50,000 died
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in combat. So we
had more lost to the flu
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then to the war.
Even the peace conference
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at Versailles was
affected by the flu.
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That's right,
very interesting study,
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the bird flu tends
to cause mental changes,
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while you know
when you get the flu you
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feel like going to bed
you can think that well,
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it sends you
mind into alpha waves.
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Well this
happened to Woodrow Wilson,
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up until he got the
flu he was fighting for the
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Germans not letting
the French put too strong
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or reparations on
them. After he got the flu
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some people in history
thought he had a stroke,
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but early he got an
flu he ended up just you
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know letting the
French have what they wanted
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and basically set up
the conditions that would
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lead to World
War II under Hitler.
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Here's a letter from
a doctor at Camp Devens
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and he says, it was
only a matter of a few hours
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then until death
comes, and it is simply
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a struggle for air
until they suffocate.
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One can stand it to
see one, two or twenty
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men die, but to see
these poor devils drop
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like flies sort of
deaths on your nerves.
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We have been averaging
about 100 deaths per day,
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and still keeping it
up. There is no doubt in my
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mind that there is a
new mixed infection here,
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but what, I don't
know. Let's take a look at
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what is required
for a pandemic to occur?
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What did our history,
many history of plagues
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throughout the world,
history of flu's in the
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past, lets take a
look about what has to be
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in place for a flu to
actually occur for this
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pandemic. Well if
you have a new organism
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that nobody has ever
been infected with before,
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have no immunity to
it, well then it can spread
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like wildfire,
especially if it varying
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on to humans,
pathogenic to humans,
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it will infect
humans. And so humans must be
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able to transmit it
from person to person
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also in order for it
to become a pandemic.
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Can you tell us a
little about the particular
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food that we're
looking at right now,
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I believe it's
called the H5N1 virus.
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Yes, this virus is
a bird flu, we call it
00:09:59.55\00:10:03.06
avian influenza. Avian
meaning bird, influenza
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is you know we get the
word flu from influenza.
00:10:06.84\00:10:10.60
This virus effects
birds that live around water,
00:10:11.38\00:10:14.68
aquatic birds you
know swans and mallards
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and ducks you know
and geese and they fly
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all over the country
with it. They're kind of like
00:10:21.10\00:10:23.27
a reservoirs too, they
don't necessarily get sick
00:10:23.28\00:10:25.73
and die from it but
they certainly spread it and
00:10:25.74\00:10:28.65
they drop it out in their
feces. Well the H5N1 virus
00:10:28.66\00:10:32.34
has raised concerns
about potential human
00:10:32.35\00:10:33.97
pandemic because
it's especially virulent.
00:10:33.98\00:10:36.07
As being spread all
over the place by these
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migratory birds. No
one can predict when next
00:10:38.88\00:10:41.24
pandemic might
occur. Wow! These migratory
00:10:41.25\00:10:45.10
birds are kind of
a concern you know,
00:10:45.11\00:10:46.67
they go all the way
from Australia up to Russia
00:10:46.68\00:10:49.19
and then some birds
go from Russia across
00:10:49.20\00:10:51.13
over to Maine and New
Brunswick and so forth
00:10:51.14\00:10:53.92
and then they'll
go all way down to
00:10:53.93\00:10:55.27
South America, they
spread it all over the globe.
00:10:55.28\00:10:58.15
So, if you look at
those migratory routes
00:10:58.85\00:11:01.01
you can kind of
pick where your birds
00:11:01.02\00:11:02.66
gonna come from. That's right.
00:11:02.67\00:11:03.96
More than half of the
people infected with the
00:11:05.26\00:11:06.71
H5N1 virus have died so
far. Most of these cases
00:11:06.72\00:11:09.88
are all believed to
have been caused by exposure
00:11:09.89\00:11:11.77
to infected poultry
and possible human to human
00:11:11.78\00:11:14.93
transmission is
currently being investigated
00:11:14.94\00:11:16.87
as well. That's right.
Any time there is a case
00:11:16.88\00:11:18.91
over in Asia that
looks like one human being
00:11:18.92\00:11:21.18
passes it to
another, they're all over it.
00:11:21.19\00:11:23.24
And there's been some
cases where like family
00:11:23.86\00:11:25.82
members came from out
of the country to come
00:11:25.83\00:11:27.93
visit their relative
in hospital and they came
00:11:27.94\00:11:30.62
down with it. So,
obviously it got transmitted
00:11:30.63\00:11:32.96
from human to human.
Well lets take a look
00:11:32.97\00:11:35.17
at the influenza A
virus. You know it's a very
00:11:35.18\00:11:37.13
small virus 50 to 120
nanometers. Whatever that
00:11:37.14\00:11:41.91
means, well it means,
it's so small, it takes an
00:11:41.92\00:11:44.13
electron microscope to
see it, as only a single
00:11:44.14\00:11:48.06
strand of RNA not
DNA, that's 8 segments
00:11:48.07\00:11:52.95
of that RNA, it
has surface proteins,
00:11:52.96\00:11:56.29
these are the way,
this is the way we type
00:11:56.30\00:11:57.82
the virus. For
example the H5N1 well that can
00:11:57.83\00:12:02.00
be 15 different H's
and there can be nine
00:12:02.01\00:12:04.22
different N's. Well the
H is a letter that stands
00:12:04.23\00:12:08.05
for Haemagglutinin,
this is a receptor binder
00:12:08.06\00:12:11.79
that gets the virus into
the cell, the N stands for
00:12:11.80\00:12:16.73
Neuraminidase, it's a
protein that gets the virus
00:12:16.74\00:12:19.51
out of the cell, back
out of it, and so these
00:12:19.52\00:12:23.02
are both important
for the infectivity of the
00:12:23.03\00:12:26.11
virus and since they
change it's a way we can
00:12:26.12\00:12:28.76
type the virus. Water
foul carry the disease,
00:12:28.77\00:12:31.72
domestic foul can
also catch the disease and
00:12:31.73\00:12:33.65
pass it to swine. Oh
boy. Swine catch both the
00:12:33.66\00:12:37.22
human and the bird
flu, okay, so they can
00:12:37.23\00:12:40.71
actually be kind of
a reservoir to create
00:12:40.72\00:12:42.64
a new hybrid. They're
the laboratory, that's right
00:12:42.65\00:12:45.11
and that's when the
flu can become pandemic.
00:12:45.12\00:12:47.20
The swine or a
important link, that's right,
00:12:47.86\00:12:52.28
many animals or meat
for that instance can
00:12:52.29\00:12:54.95
actually have a
history of being linked to
00:12:54.96\00:12:56.66
pestilence. Interesting
and the biblically unclean
00:12:56.67\00:13:00.94
meats are
especially bad aren't they,
00:13:00.95\00:13:02.97
that's very true. And
I think of some of the
00:13:02.98\00:13:06.01
diseases we see around
the country, hepatitis A,
00:13:06.02\00:13:08.68
typhoid and cholera
all can come from eating
00:13:08.69\00:13:12.08
clams or shellfish
which are biblically unclean
00:13:12.09\00:13:15.24
meat. By biblically
unclean, I mean God says
00:13:15.25\00:13:17.19
in the Bible I
really didn't make these for
00:13:17.20\00:13:19.02
food, right, and if
you did eat them you know
00:13:19.03\00:13:21.83
you're on your own.
Well, hepatitis A happens
00:13:21.84\00:13:25.13
that way. Pigs, eating
pigs or living with them
00:13:25.14\00:13:28.42
is linked to the
influenza, like we already
00:13:28.43\00:13:32.07
talked about, but also
there is trichinosis that
00:13:32.08\00:13:35.32
can happen, also
there is some question
00:13:35.33\00:13:38.40
whether or not HIV
got it start from people
00:13:38.41\00:13:42.12
eating or living
with monkeys, yeah,
00:13:42.13\00:13:44.52
and I don't know if
that's confirmed but.
00:13:45.30\00:13:47.19
Trichinella, 36
percent were due to infected
00:13:47.20\00:13:50.91
pork, yeah, 40
percent bear, bear? Bear,
00:13:51.49\00:13:54.10
probably those who
mainly like to hunt bear,
00:13:56.22\00:13:57.46
that's right, 11
percent badger and 12
00:13:57.47\00:14:00.93
percent dog. Clams
have been responsible for
00:14:00.94\00:14:04.14
spreading hepatitis
A, in fact in 1988 nearly
00:14:04.15\00:14:07.92
300,000 Chinese
in Shanghai developed
00:14:08.56\00:14:12.15
Hepatitis A from eating clams.
00:14:12.16\00:14:14.65
You as a clam
cleans up the ocean floor,
00:14:15.16\00:14:17.11
cleans you know
these are cleaning bees,
00:14:17.12\00:14:18.98
yeah, and when they
get through cleaning,
00:14:18.99\00:14:21.16
its kind of like your
vacuum cleaner, they have
00:14:21.74\00:14:23.14
a bag in them that
carries all the junk that they
00:14:23.15\00:14:25.79
cleaned, and they can
have all these infective
00:14:25.80\00:14:28.09
organisms living in
that bag, you eat the you
00:14:28.73\00:14:31.98
know this clam and you
get the benefit of what
00:14:31.99\00:14:34.48
he had in his
cleaning bag, that's right.
00:14:34.49\00:14:36.49
Well tell us how the
swine flu i guess in the Bible
00:14:37.40\00:14:41.06
are related? Yeah,
you know in 1918 this
00:14:41.07\00:14:45.29
influenza killed so many
people, killed more people
00:14:45.30\00:14:47.78
than the war killed
and if you trace it back
00:14:47.79\00:14:52.03
it does seem that it
reasserted in pigs in Asia
00:14:52.57\00:14:55.27
and if it
reasserted in pigs in Asia then
00:14:56.00\00:14:59.69
if those people
haven't been living with and
00:15:00.21\00:15:02.82
eating pigs we may
never have seen this
00:15:02.83\00:15:05.69
pandemic influenza
back then, so it all comes
00:15:06.47\00:15:09.78
back to the Bible
and the suggestions God
00:15:09.79\00:15:12.13
made that you know
you shouldn't eat them,
00:15:12.14\00:15:14.35
maybe you shouldn't
live with them and maybe
00:15:14.36\00:15:16.04
you shouldn't even
touch them, that's right,
00:15:16.05\00:15:17.21
because the pigs are
kind of like the clams,
00:15:17.86\00:15:19.35
they go around
cleaning things up.
00:15:19.36\00:15:20.99
Yes it seems like when
you look at the unclean
00:15:21.98\00:15:23.42
and the clean
animals, the unclean animals
00:15:23.43\00:15:24.85
are those for
instance the vultures, yeah,
00:15:24.86\00:15:27.59
or the pigs, the clams
and their permanent job
00:15:27.60\00:15:29.59
is to clean up waste
and so when we eat them
00:15:29.60\00:15:32.52
I guess we're
getting some of that waste.
00:15:32.53\00:15:33.89
Well, lets look at
how the flu is spread from
00:15:34.98\00:15:37.09
year to year, yes,
each year we have a flu
00:15:37.10\00:15:39.33
season, that's
right, and we have a flu
00:15:39.34\00:15:41.43
season for birds and
some forms of the flu
00:15:41.44\00:15:43.69
seem to be worse than others.
00:15:43.70\00:15:44.86
A weak virus may
cause you know mild illness
00:15:45.49\00:15:47.83
in infected poultry
but a strong virus could
00:15:48.34\00:15:50.61
cause severe and
extremely contagious
00:15:50.62\00:15:52.12
illness and even
death among infected poultry
00:15:52.13\00:15:55.41
and birds. Well
when you have the birds,
00:15:55.42\00:15:57.77
all gathered together
in one area, in a close
00:15:57.78\00:16:00.52
confinement then the
air borne particles can go
00:16:00.53\00:16:04.11
from bird to bird. You
also have direct contact
00:16:04.12\00:16:07.66
with respiratory
secretions you know,
00:16:07.67\00:16:09.62
birds blow their noses
I guess, that's right and
00:16:10.55\00:16:12.65
they leave it around
and somebody else gets
00:16:12.66\00:16:15.16
a hold of it. Then it
can actually be in the eggs
00:16:15.17\00:16:18.33
and if the egg breaks
and gets spread around,
00:16:18.86\00:16:20.58
then other birds get
in the egg and pretty soon
00:16:20.59\00:16:22.72
they've got it as
well. And if you're taking
00:16:22.73\00:16:25.27
birds and moving
them from flock to flock,
00:16:25.28\00:16:27.35
you know you take one
sick bird and move him
00:16:27.36\00:16:29.56
to another flock the
other flock is gonna get
00:16:29.57\00:16:31.41
it as well, that's
right. Then you have people
00:16:31.42\00:16:33.41
that go and work with
the birds and they might
00:16:33.42\00:16:35.36
get this stuff on
their shoes or their clothes
00:16:35.37\00:16:37.78
or something, egg
flaps are carrying or even
00:16:37.79\00:16:41.29
on the feed trucks
and pretty soon it gets
00:16:41.30\00:16:42.98
spread from camp of
birds to camp of birds or
00:16:42.99\00:16:46.13
from confinement of
birds. And then there's
00:16:46.14\00:16:49.30
the birds that just get
in contact with wild birds,
00:16:49.31\00:16:53.22
you know you have a
flock of chicken in flies
00:16:53.83\00:16:55.61
the duck, he lands, he
poops, you know you can
00:16:55.62\00:16:58.89
only imagine how
he spreads, right,
00:16:58.90\00:17:01.06
around this infected
material. Well you know
00:17:01.07\00:17:05.24
he lands in the
water and infects the water
00:17:05.25\00:17:07.69
and then blame it or
not garbage flies can
00:17:08.63\00:17:11.65
carry this surrounds,
so carry a fly swatter,
00:17:11.66\00:17:14.25
that's right. Where
we talk about how the
00:17:14.26\00:17:15.82
influenza can be
spread among birds, yeah,
00:17:15.83\00:17:18.24
lets know a little
about how it can be spread
00:17:18.25\00:17:19.75
among people.
Somebody comes flying in on an
00:17:19.76\00:17:22.09
airplane from Italy or
something and when they
00:17:22.10\00:17:24.80
come in, they've
infected everybody on the
00:17:24.81\00:17:26.70
airplane because that
airplane just re-circulates
00:17:26.71\00:17:29.14
the air. Basically
its respiratory droplets,
00:17:29.15\00:17:31.68
the person coughs,
put the respiratory
00:17:32.48\00:17:35.09
droplet in the air,
the respiratory droplet
00:17:35.10\00:17:37.31
has infective agents
in it, virus and the next
00:17:37.32\00:17:40.98
person comes
along and sniffs it up,
00:17:40.99\00:17:42.89
well not on purpose
or the person coughs
00:17:43.40\00:17:46.14
onto their hands and
they touch something,
00:17:46.63\00:17:48.34
somebody comes
along and touches the same
00:17:48.35\00:17:50.11
thing like a doorknob
and when they touch the
00:17:50.12\00:17:52.94
doorknob then they
got to touch their face
00:17:52.95\00:17:55.00
make sure they're
you know, looking alright
00:17:55.01\00:17:57.35
for them, its not
right, yeah, looking alright
00:17:57.36\00:17:58.73
for them and then
they have the bird flu.
00:17:58.74\00:18:00.85
And so it can happen a
number of different ways.
00:18:01.86\00:18:03.90
Then once they get
the virus, may not be
00:18:04.45\00:18:06.17
apparent for a day
or two that they've come
00:18:06.18\00:18:07.97
down with some illness,
not showing any symptoms,
00:18:07.98\00:18:10.41
not showing any
symptoms and they start
00:18:10.42\00:18:12.11
spreading it around,
they touch their face,
00:18:12.12\00:18:14.65
they shake hands,
they're social, they're nice,
00:18:14.66\00:18:16.99
they hug and pretty
soon, everyone they hugged,
00:18:17.00\00:18:19.55
everyone they hugged
guys with the bird flu,
00:18:20.21\00:18:21.90
in trouble. So yes, it
can affect people for up
00:18:21.91\00:18:24.94
ten days before
even you know it and then
00:18:24.95\00:18:26.62
up to 5 days after
you've come down with
00:18:26.63\00:18:28.57
symptoms as well,
yeah, so you can pass the flu
00:18:28.93\00:18:30.83
to someone else
before you even know you're
00:18:30.84\00:18:32.14
sick and then after
you're sick for up to five days,
00:18:32.15\00:18:34.24
that's right, the
gift that keeps on giving,
00:18:34.25\00:18:36.30
that's right. And if
you work in an area where
00:18:36.31\00:18:40.40
there's a lot of
people coming and going,
00:18:40.41\00:18:42.14
you're at high risk, I
mean if you're a border
00:18:42.95\00:18:44.46
guard down on
Tijuana border, that's right,
00:18:44.47\00:18:47.89
you're gonna see a
lot of people come through
00:18:47.90\00:18:49.22
there you might get
the bird flu, but if you're
00:18:49.23\00:18:52.31
in an isolated place
like Wyoming, where not
00:18:52.32\00:18:55.28
many people are
coming and going then its
00:18:55.29\00:18:57.87
harder to spread it.
So you have to monitor
00:18:57.88\00:19:01.43
your risk by how
many people are coming
00:19:02.18\00:19:04.32
and going. Well
speaking of a lot of people
00:19:04.33\00:19:06.52
in one area, cities, oh!
Cities, there is a critical
00:19:06.53\00:19:10.69
population cite that
they usually associate
00:19:10.70\00:19:12.85
with something becoming
a pandemic, that's right,
00:19:12.86\00:19:15.57
and 250,000 seems
to be the magic number,
00:19:15.58\00:19:18.48
that's right, you
know pandemics didn't start
00:19:19.03\00:19:21.19
making their way in the
history until people were
00:19:21.20\00:19:23.99
crowding into
cities over 250,000.
00:19:24.00\00:19:26.42
Part of it is that if
you're in a little farm
00:19:26.43\00:19:28.37
community and everybody gets it,
00:19:28.38\00:19:29.55
that's gonna get it
and it passes on, but
00:19:29.56\00:19:31.90
if you're in a big
city this group can get it,
00:19:32.51\00:19:34.58
then this group can get
it, then the other group
00:19:34.59\00:19:36.21
can get it and then
pass it back to the first
00:19:36.22\00:19:37.88
group and it just
keeps going around these
00:19:37.89\00:19:39.49
250,000, multiple
ways, yeah, multiple ways
00:19:39.50\00:19:41.49
until you have a
whole sick population.
00:19:42.39\00:19:45.62
Does the Bible say
something about cities and
00:19:45.63\00:19:47.36
disease, it certainly
does. In Jeremiah 21:6,
00:19:47.37\00:19:50.71
we find, and I will
smite the inhabitants
00:19:51.28\00:19:53.00
of this city,
both man and beast:
00:19:53.01\00:19:54.60
they shall die of
a great pestilence.
00:19:54.61\00:19:56.29
So, even in the Bible
we find examples of the
00:19:57.06\00:19:58.64
cities being
affected by disease.
00:19:58.65\00:20:00.35
Well, you're supposedly
weren't supposed to live
00:20:00.95\00:20:02.76
in cities, it's
possible, you mean maybe we were
00:20:02.77\00:20:05.48
supposed to be
agrarian in our society.
00:20:05.49\00:20:07.94
Yes, if everybody
had their own garden and
00:20:09.05\00:20:11.39
lived off the land
they'd have a better immune
00:20:12.41\00:20:13.92
system as we'll find
out in talk number two
00:20:13.93\00:20:16.51
where we talk about
prevention. We'd like to
00:20:17.05\00:20:19.93
correct the little
bit about the past, yes,
00:20:19.94\00:20:22.57
the flu, how it's
affected our society,
00:20:22.58\00:20:24.37
different pandemics
have gone across the globe,
00:20:24.38\00:20:26.80
lets talk a bit about
how that can affect us
00:20:26.81\00:20:29.15
right here in our
little society. Yeah,
00:20:29.16\00:20:31.93
can have quite an effect on us,
00:20:31.94\00:20:34.07
pandemics when they
start you don't necessarily
00:20:34.96\00:20:38.11
know that they're
gonna be a pandemic,
00:20:38.12\00:20:39.68
but of course in this
bird flu case we worried
00:20:40.54\00:20:42.61
about that,
especially since there's such
00:20:42.62\00:20:44.45
high levels of global
traffic and the virus has
00:20:44.46\00:20:48.37
been particularly
virulent and so if it starts,
00:20:49.14\00:20:51.84
there will be a
little or no time to prepare.
00:20:52.61\00:20:54.25
People to be caught
off guard and I don't think
00:20:54.78\00:20:56.71
people realize that
as much as they should.
00:20:56.72\00:20:59.13
We might not even
know what to expect,
00:20:59.70\00:21:00.77
we might not
know what to expect,
00:21:01.52\00:21:02.67
so tell us, so
we have a heads up.
00:21:02.68\00:21:04.23
Yes, well we'll
do the best we can,
00:21:04.24\00:21:06.60
if it appears we could
expect that the influenza
00:21:08.06\00:21:12.46
will affect
communities, it will affect them
00:21:13.16\00:21:15.43
for a long time, it
will be longer than other
00:21:15.44\00:21:18.23
natural disasters,
you know we had Katrina,
00:21:18.24\00:21:20.57
we had the tsunami
out in the, and we had
00:21:21.06\00:21:24.14
different natural
disasters but a flu pandemic
00:21:24.52\00:21:27.14
just keeps going
and going and going,
00:21:27.71\00:21:29.48
so it lasts for a
longer period of time,
00:21:29.49\00:21:31.50
maybe several months.
And then it takes long
00:21:31.51\00:21:34.64
time before they can get
the vaccine ready. You may
00:21:34.65\00:21:36.42
not have a vaccine,
so it's a big problem.
00:21:36.43\00:21:39.97
Well you talked a
little about a vaccine and
00:21:40.54\00:21:42.04
taking a long time
for that to be prepared,
00:21:42.05\00:21:44.18
what kind of need do
we have for vaccines,
00:21:45.90\00:21:47.55
what kind of supply
we have, what's going on
00:21:47.56\00:21:49.48
with that? Yeah, if you
really had a good vaccine
00:21:49.49\00:21:51.94
that really
worked for everybody,
00:21:51.95\00:21:53.30
you'd wish everybody
had, but when this flu
00:21:53.31\00:21:57.01
comes through it'll
come through as a virulent
00:21:57.02\00:22:00.82
stain that maybe
unlike the one that we're
00:22:00.83\00:22:03.01
seeing right now. So, we
don't know what the final
00:22:03.02\00:22:05.15
flu will look like,
so we don't know what the
00:22:05.16\00:22:07.78
final flu will be
like, we can't make a vaccine
00:22:07.79\00:22:10.81
yet that will really
treat an unknown factor.
00:22:10.82\00:22:13.97
And so when the
flu comes around,
00:22:15.04\00:22:17.01
it will take several
months for them to you
00:22:17.02\00:22:19.54
know type it and
start producing a vaccine
00:22:19.55\00:22:22.59
that will be
effective, and then it will take
00:22:22.60\00:22:24.54
a long time to get
their, you know factories going
00:22:24.55\00:22:27.68
to make another
drug for everybody,
00:22:27.69\00:22:29.27
so it could be very
inadequate in beginning.
00:22:29.77\00:22:32.57
Well that's true and
then who's gonna get it,
00:22:33.37\00:22:35.26
yeah who is
gonna get it, you know,
00:22:36.01\00:22:38.00
if we have an inadequate
supply you know whose,
00:22:38.49\00:22:41.36
I guess we're gonna start
having difficult decisions
00:22:42.10\00:22:43.84
on who's gonna be
the first, who's gonna be
00:22:43.85\00:22:45.31
the first one to get
it, that's right, you know
00:22:45.32\00:22:47.80
who shouldn't get it.
You think about the past
00:22:49.04\00:22:50.88
flu's like the
1957 flu for example,
00:22:50.89\00:22:54.46
or the yearly flu, it
usually effects the weaker
00:22:54.47\00:22:57.38
people in our population,
the older and the younger.
00:22:57.92\00:22:59.87
But the 1918 flu that
we're calling a bird flu
00:23:00.80\00:23:03.95
because it had bird
flu genes in it according
00:23:03.96\00:23:05.99
to the studies,
affected the 15 to 35 year
00:23:06.00\00:23:10.72
olds and this is a
very interesting difference.
00:23:10.73\00:23:15.23
So, you know who
you going to vaccinate.
00:23:15.96\00:23:18.05
Maybe better if you
vaccinate in that age group
00:23:18.84\00:23:21.09
and so they talk
about vaccinating healthcare
00:23:22.00\00:23:24.15
workers first or
vaccine producers first or
00:23:24.16\00:23:27.42
you know politicians or whoever,
00:23:28.15\00:23:29.49
you remember there
was a time when the flu
00:23:29.50\00:23:31.85
was coming around
and President Ford got
00:23:31.86\00:23:33.98
up on the television
and got his vaccine so,
00:23:34.59\00:23:37.15
in front of everyone,
in front of everybody,
00:23:37.16\00:23:38.82
encouraging them to
get on the right theme.
00:23:39.86\00:23:42.23
Well you talked about
the difference between
00:23:42.79\00:23:44.94
normal like a disaster
and a pandemic in different
00:23:45.68\00:23:47.60
communities and it
being able to spread around
00:23:47.61\00:23:49.45
for in some cities you
talked about waves, yes,
00:23:49.46\00:23:52.49
you know a wave. Tell
us a little bit about how
00:23:52.50\00:23:55.83
that will happen
and what we could to,
00:23:55.84\00:23:57.17
I guess there's different
drugs out there you know
00:23:57.18\00:23:58.67
if one wave goes
through that might give us
00:23:58.68\00:24:00.20
a little bit of time
to prepare for the second
00:24:00.21\00:24:02.03
wave or that sort of
thing. Yeah, that's right
00:24:02.04\00:24:05.79
and the waves could be
as much as six months apart
00:24:05.80\00:24:08.05
or even a few weeks.
Some of the things that
00:24:08.06\00:24:11.09
medicine has to offer or
like antiviral medications
00:24:11.10\00:24:14.76
such as Relenza or
Tamiflu, but these have had
00:24:15.31\00:24:18.19
failures in Asia.
They've given the drug,
00:24:18.20\00:24:21.15
I mean when they
originally came around
00:24:22.19\00:24:23.88
marketing the drug to
us physicians they said
00:24:23.89\00:24:26.86
it will shorten the
duration of the flu by
00:24:26.87\00:24:29.69
one day and it will
decrease the symptoms.
00:24:29.70\00:24:32.38
It wasn't really a
cure all it sounds like,
00:24:32.90\00:24:34.37
not really a cure all,
the only thing you have
00:24:34.38\00:24:37.05
that's the only thing
you have, and so they are
00:24:37.06\00:24:39.15
trying to produce in
mass production so we
00:24:39.16\00:24:42.52
will have more of
it. Oh! Lets take a look
00:24:42.53\00:24:44.87
a little bit more
about how exactly this would
00:24:44.88\00:24:46.67
impact our society,
okay, if we had the flu,
00:24:47.32\00:24:50.13
people started
getting the flu what does that
00:24:50.68\00:24:52.31
mean for us, our
normal day to day lives.
00:24:52.32\00:24:54.87
Well we looked to
the 1918 bird flu to kind
00:24:55.60\00:24:58.02
of give us some
guidance in that area.
00:24:58.03\00:24:59.66
There were families
living in close proximity,
00:25:00.18\00:25:02.77
the undertakers
were all overwhelmed,
00:25:03.51\00:25:05.45
some of them had
quit working because they
00:25:05.46\00:25:07.05
didn't want to get
the flu and so there would
00:25:07.06\00:25:08.65
be bodies in people's houses,
00:25:08.66\00:25:10.30
they close off a room
and put all the bodies
00:25:10.31\00:25:12.23
in one room, the
society quit functioning,
00:25:12.24\00:25:14.87
the truck drivers,
they're either sick or not
00:25:15.63\00:25:17.20
calling things, you
could have 40 percent of
00:25:17.21\00:25:19.73
the workforce off of
work, I know we think of
00:25:19.74\00:25:23.05
all the workers
that we depend on,
00:25:23.06\00:25:25.17
the services we
depend on and it could be
00:25:25.72\00:25:28.24
a dramatic
change in our society.
00:25:28.25\00:25:30.11
We might get
quarantined at home and
00:25:30.12\00:25:31.82
had to stay there,
you would be wishing you
00:25:31.83\00:25:33.28
had to stockpile food
and water, that's right
00:25:33.29\00:25:35.63
so I couldn't just run
down to the grocery store
00:25:35.64\00:25:37.31
if the trucker
didn't bring the food or you
00:25:37.82\00:25:39.39
mentioning maybe the
power lines might be out
00:25:39.40\00:25:41.80
or telephone lines all
sorts of things that would
00:25:41.81\00:25:44.06
be non-functional
and no one would be there
00:25:45.02\00:25:46.09
to fix them, that's
right. Get a big wind storm
00:25:46.10\00:25:49.58
around here and the
power goes off, that's right,
00:25:49.59\00:25:51.50
can't call the power
company because they're
00:25:52.04\00:25:53.34
off all sick and you
know my whole house runs
00:25:53.35\00:25:56.16
on power even the, you
know oil furnace needs a,
00:25:56.68\00:25:58.87
yeah, needs power to
run. All things we take
00:25:59.43\00:26:01.61
for granted like
being able to go to the bank
00:26:01.62\00:26:03.10
or get our mail
everyday, yeah, might not
00:26:03.11\00:26:05.02
be functioning. We
get all of these stuck,
00:26:05.03\00:26:07.15
you'd be very glad
you had your own garden,
00:26:07.16\00:26:08.99
that's right, so
many things we take for
00:26:09.48\00:26:10.83
granted like just being
able to go out and buy an
00:26:10.84\00:26:12.74
apple or a quick
for the day or being
00:26:12.75\00:26:14.89
able to stop by
and purchase anything
00:26:14.90\00:26:16.38
you want, we may not be
able to do those things.
00:26:16.39\00:26:18.43
That's right Amber
how much food do you have
00:26:18.44\00:26:20.20
stored in your
basement. That's right, nothing
00:26:20.21\00:26:22.41
in my basement right
now, well I won't come
00:26:22.42\00:26:24.45
to your house then,
that's right. As far as the
00:26:24.46\00:26:28.27
United States, what
are we looking at as far as
00:26:28.28\00:26:30.18
numbers of infection
and who's going to get it,
00:26:30.19\00:26:32.65
how many death
rates? What are they
00:26:32.66\00:26:35.22
predicting about
this sort of thing? Well,
00:26:35.23\00:26:37.26
they think about 30
percent of the people
00:26:37.27\00:26:39.51
could come down with a
flu, we call it a 30 percent
00:26:39.52\00:26:41.72
attack rate. This would
amount to about 90 million
00:26:41.73\00:26:46.55
Americans,
that's a lot of people.
00:26:46.56\00:26:48.56
Well those about 10
percent of them could end
00:26:49.50\00:26:51.70
up in the hospital. So,
that could be 10 million
00:26:51.71\00:26:54.53
people in the hospital.
Wow! You know there are
00:26:54.54\00:26:57.07
not 10 million
hospital beds in this country,
00:26:57.08\00:26:59.61
right, and so you
might find yourself in a
00:26:59.62\00:27:02.51
warehouse
somewhere that's been turned
00:27:02.52\00:27:04.10
into a hospital, that's
right, and the death rate
00:27:04.11\00:27:07.75
could amount to
about two million people
00:27:07.76\00:27:10.83
could die from that
or even more I mean right
00:27:10.84\00:27:13.27
now 50 of those in
Asia that get the flu die
00:27:13.28\00:27:16.27
of a flu. So, how
strong the strain is,
00:27:16.28\00:27:20.02
yeah and this is a
strong strain and then the
00:27:20.81\00:27:23.37
financial impact
could be anywhere from
00:27:23.38\00:27:26.91
71 to 166 billion
dollars lost, lost wages,
00:27:27.54\00:27:32.63
medical expenses,
all kinds of things.
00:27:32.64\00:27:35.45
A big impact on
society. When you said you
00:27:36.21\00:27:39.55
know 2 million people,
not enough hospital beds
00:27:39.56\00:27:42.22
well what does
that mean for us and
00:27:42.23\00:27:43.97
if we don't have
enough hospital beds and
00:27:43.98\00:27:45.23
people staying home,
have you heard anything
00:27:45.24\00:27:47.80
about what they might
plan to do as alternate
00:27:47.81\00:27:49.62
sources of beds or
places for people to go?
00:27:49.63\00:27:53.23
Yes, you know I was
up at the bird flu summit
00:27:53.97\00:27:56.84
and they had a
hospital administrator get up,
00:27:58.38\00:28:00.48
he was from a town
of you know 60, 70,000
00:28:00.49\00:28:03.41
he asked his
emergency room and his ICU,
00:28:04.13\00:28:06.80
how many serious bird
flu cases could we handle.
00:28:06.81\00:28:09.62
They said five, like
wow! Let's see 30 percent
00:28:09.63\00:28:12.84
attack rate, 10
percent hospitalization,
00:28:12.85\00:28:14.94
you know what's
when you get the numbers
00:28:14.95\00:28:17.30
you know he's gonna
have a lot more than
00:28:17.31\00:28:18.91
five people showing
up at his hospital in his
00:28:18.92\00:28:20.74
community to try to
get cured of the bird flu,
00:28:20.75\00:28:23.14
right, or taken
care. And so it just,
00:28:23.15\00:28:27.12
the numbers just
don't add up if we get this
00:28:27.13\00:28:29.50
kind of flu, there's
going to be nowhere to go.
00:28:29.51\00:28:31.38
So, they've been
working on setting up hospitals
00:28:32.17\00:28:35.36
or setting up
schools as hospitals,
00:28:36.14\00:28:38.44
planning on where
they get to have treatment
00:28:39.20\00:28:41.81
centers. You know
there's a number of problems
00:28:41.82\00:28:44.13
too with the amount
of equipment we have
00:28:44.14\00:28:45.60
available.
Respirators or ventilators,
00:28:45.61\00:28:48.99
people who are dying
on bird flu will be in
00:28:50.00\00:28:51.84
ventilator support
or right now we use
00:28:51.85\00:28:54.02
80 percent of our
ventilators constantly.
00:28:54.03\00:28:55.99
We don't have extra
ventilators for two million
00:28:57.03\00:28:59.25
people, or ten
million people. Send them
00:28:59.26\00:29:01.19
to the hospital
to be taken care of.
00:29:01.20\00:29:03.07
Well even the hospital workers,
00:29:03.08\00:29:04.53
I mean that's a concern as well.
00:29:05.09\00:29:06.06
What if, you know
like we said you know you
00:29:06.48\00:29:07.88
lose your grocery
store, you lose your power
00:29:07.89\00:29:10.36
and what about
your nurse, your doctor.
00:29:11.07\00:29:12.79
Oh! Yeah, or your
physical therapist, or
00:29:13.34\00:29:14.81
your physical
therapist? Yeah, you could be
00:29:14.82\00:29:17.86
in big trouble, they
might be home you know
00:29:17.87\00:29:20.13
taking care of family
or you know doctors died
00:29:20.14\00:29:22.76
in 1918 just
everybody else, they have high
00:29:22.77\00:29:26.21
exposure too, you
know the healthcare workers
00:29:26.22\00:29:27.91
are gonna have the
highest exposure of everyone,
00:29:27.92\00:29:29.32
that's right. Well,
you mentioned alternate
00:29:30.03\00:29:33.28
places for people to
go while things going down
00:29:33.29\00:29:35.50
and absenteeism,
yeah, tell us a little bit
00:29:35.51\00:29:37.87
about that, how
will our society you know
00:29:37.88\00:29:39.63
respond to that? Oh!
Yes, say you're running
00:29:39.64\00:29:41.92
a business, say you're
running the local hospital
00:29:41.93\00:29:44.84
and 40 percent of
people that work there
00:29:45.68\00:29:47.40
don't show up and
several 100 percent more
00:29:47.41\00:29:51.88
people show up that
are sick, that's right,
00:29:51.89\00:29:53.68
what a disaster. You
know hospitals often run
00:29:53.69\00:29:56.04
very tight
staffing policies anyway,
00:29:56.05\00:29:59.78
they don't staff
extra staff very much and
00:29:59.79\00:30:02.21
so all of a sudden
you don't have any staff,
00:30:02.22\00:30:04.19
you're overwhelmed
with a lot more people
00:30:04.20\00:30:06.51
to take care of, it
could be a real disaster and
00:30:06.52\00:30:09.69
you know employees at
home taking care of family
00:30:10.13\00:30:12.72
maybe they're
quarantined or maybe their car
00:30:12.73\00:30:15.39
it doesn't work
'cause they can get the gas,
00:30:15.40\00:30:17.50
the mechanic's out.
All kinds of things can
00:30:17.51\00:30:20.15
happen to keep people
from going where they're
00:30:20.16\00:30:22.39
supposed to go.
Children can't go to school,
00:30:22.40\00:30:24.59
the teacher is sick or
the school's closed down.
00:30:24.60\00:30:27.04
All people are just
staying home because they
00:30:27.88\00:30:29.92
don't want to get
the flu and then there
00:30:29.93\00:30:32.10
is a percentage of
people who are healthy but
00:30:32.11\00:30:34.35
just are scared to death
to go out into public and
00:30:34.36\00:30:37.52
they get
agoraphobia, that's right,
00:30:37.53\00:30:39.64
in public places.
Yeah, work is gonna be pretty
00:30:41.22\00:30:45.98
difficult to get to,
if not possible especially
00:30:45.99\00:30:47.94
if nobody is coming
out or nobody is there,
00:30:47.95\00:30:50.05
a lot of places might
not even be functioning
00:30:50.06\00:30:51.74
at all. So, I guess it
might be a good idea for me
00:30:51.75\00:30:54.26
to call up my boss and
ask what he expects of me.
00:30:54.27\00:30:56.46
Oh! That's right, you
might get fired for not
00:30:57.15\00:30:58.74
showing up, that's
true. You might be at home
00:30:58.75\00:31:00.81
hoping for his own
pay check and you're not
00:31:00.82\00:31:03.36
making for him, that's
right. So, it's probably
00:31:03.37\00:31:06.04
a good idea to
call up our employers,
00:31:06.05\00:31:07.53
may be if in our local
cities and that's sort of
00:31:08.86\00:31:11.22
thing and kind of find
out what their policies
00:31:11.23\00:31:12.77
are for when the flu
comes down you know what
00:31:13.39\00:31:14.76
is expected as I said,
that's right. You might
00:31:14.77\00:31:16.89
wanna find out what the
policy is on your credit
00:31:16.90\00:31:19.21
card as well, you
know being in debt during
00:31:19.22\00:31:21.34
a bird flu can be a
disaster, that's true,
00:31:21.35\00:31:23.21
and so you might
wanna make sure that you're
00:31:23.22\00:31:24.98
able to live on less
money during that time,
00:31:24.99\00:31:28.48
definitely, what if I
want to go to the bank during
00:31:29.27\00:31:30.87
this time and get
some money, oh yeah,
00:31:30.88\00:31:33.17
you know they maybe
closed up with a big bird
00:31:34.42\00:31:36.22
flu sign across
their door, that's right,
00:31:36.23\00:31:37.83
no money for
you, no money for you,
00:31:37.84\00:31:39.68
can't do the birds.
It might be a good idea
00:31:39.69\00:31:42.91
for me to keep some
cash under my pillow,
00:31:42.92\00:31:44.14
or under my mattress or
something like that for.
00:31:44.15\00:31:46.04
What did you say you're
keeping it, that's right,
00:31:46.93\00:31:48.46
I will say. Other
services you know beside the
00:31:49.30\00:31:53.51
hospitals, besides
the you know the bank,
00:31:53.52\00:31:55.83
besides the
grocery store you know,
00:31:55.84\00:31:57.31
phone companies, you
won't be able to contact
00:31:57.32\00:31:59.54
anyone that I need to contact,
00:31:59.55\00:32:01.99
you know maybe I'm
separated, my spouse
00:32:02.00\00:32:03.80
is on a trip
somewhere or family members that
00:32:03.81\00:32:06.70
live apart from us. I
might not be able to contact
00:32:06.71\00:32:08.86
them and find
out what's going on,
00:32:08.87\00:32:10.35
so that can be you
know a great social stress
00:32:10.36\00:32:12.68
as well. Well another
concern we talked about
00:32:12.69\00:32:14.57
cities, we talked
about being close to a lot of
00:32:14.58\00:32:17.69
people who have the
disease and becoming
00:32:17.70\00:32:19.30
infected you know that
starts a lot of attention
00:32:19.31\00:32:20.92
to public gatherings,
people tend to get together
00:32:20.93\00:32:22.95
for public meetings
or religious meetings.
00:32:22.96\00:32:25.46
That's right, in
1918 up here in Lewistown,
00:32:26.01\00:32:28.81
a city not far from
here, they had quite a
00:32:29.94\00:32:32.88
discussion in the
papers, arguments between
00:32:32.89\00:32:34.95
the clergy and the
government about whether
00:32:34.96\00:32:37.23
or not the government
could close down their
00:32:37.24\00:32:38.93
church services.
Places of gathering maybe
00:32:38.94\00:32:42.75
close to schools,
maybe close down churches,
00:32:42.76\00:32:45.48
mandatory, you
know you have no choice.
00:32:45.98\00:32:47.75
And so if you're used
to traveling on public
00:32:48.23\00:32:51.30
transportation,
subway, you know even air
00:32:51.31\00:32:54.55
travel whatever, you
might be out of luck,
00:32:54.56\00:32:57.08
you might be stranded somewhere.
00:32:57.09\00:32:58.45
And so you wanna be
able to find ways to
00:32:59.35\00:33:02.06
make your trips fewer,
yeah definitely you might
00:33:02.97\00:33:05.43
wanna consider like
you said if you can't get
00:33:05.44\00:33:07.12
to meetings or that
sort of thing, can't get to
00:33:07.13\00:33:10.07
your family if you're
on a trip you might want
00:33:10.08\00:33:11.56
to have a back up
plan, something you stay
00:33:11.57\00:33:12.97
ahead of time you
know, we meet here, yeah,
00:33:12.98\00:33:15.16
you know this is
where we're gonna have some
00:33:15.17\00:33:16.65
food stored. Nothing can
be hurt by planning ahead,
00:33:16.66\00:33:19.24
yeah having plans that's great.
00:33:20.09\00:33:22.07
What if they close
all the schools and you
00:33:22.08\00:33:24.75
have to come home and
take care of your kids,
00:33:25.39\00:33:26.87
you better have childcare ready.
00:33:26.88\00:33:28.25
If you have pets
you know sometimes your
00:33:28.92\00:33:30.78
pets will fend for
themselves but if you have
00:33:30.79\00:33:32.83
a bird or a fish in
the house you might need
00:33:32.84\00:33:35.82
have to have some
food on him, form him,
00:33:35.83\00:33:37.41
and you could
have power outages.
00:33:37.98\00:33:39.75
Maybe your
water gets turned off,
00:33:39.76\00:33:41.14
have you ever had
your water go out for
00:33:41.15\00:33:42.67
a while oh! That's a
challenge, heating you know
00:33:42.68\00:33:45.53
things get pretty
cold in the winter time and
00:33:45.54\00:33:47.77
that's usually when
the flu comes around,
00:33:47.78\00:33:49.02
yeah definitely and
most of the time when
00:33:49.03\00:33:53.72
you limit your trips
you know you definitely
00:33:53.73\00:33:55.32
wanna think
about what public areas
00:33:55.33\00:33:56.81
you're gonna be in and
minimize your exposure.
00:33:56.82\00:33:58.46
Now we talk about
during that other lecture,
00:33:59.25\00:34:00.67
being at a six
feet radius from someone
00:34:00.68\00:34:02.42
you might be able to
contaminate you or you
00:34:02.43\00:34:04.72
might be able to contaminate.
00:34:04.73\00:34:05.70
So just minimizing your
exposure by staying away
00:34:05.71\00:34:07.69
from public places
where a lot of people are,
00:34:08.54\00:34:09.83
it's definitely
something to think about,
00:34:11.63\00:34:12.64
our contact phone
numbers, little things like that
00:34:13.25\00:34:15.70
can really make
it go easier for you.
00:34:15.71\00:34:17.83
That's right if we all
get separated let's meet
00:34:18.38\00:34:20.10
at such and such a
place or you know you got
00:34:20.11\00:34:22.50
to have grandmothers
number here in case you
00:34:22.51\00:34:24.27
need to call her,
right, and with the schools
00:34:24.28\00:34:27.34
closed you know you
might all of a sudden
00:34:27.35\00:34:28.97
be home schooled whether
you planned on it or not,
00:34:28.98\00:34:30.95
that's right, extra
pencils, extra pencils,
00:34:30.96\00:34:34.22
that's right and you
might want to talk to your
00:34:34.23\00:34:36.65
school nurse and
see what her plans are.
00:34:36.66\00:34:38.70
You know she might
be the one to close the
00:34:39.30\00:34:40.48
school down, you
gotta find out what their
00:34:40.49\00:34:42.36
threshold is for
doing that and talk to the
00:34:42.37\00:34:45.47
administrators and
teachers and then you
00:34:46.38\00:34:47.98
might get together
with them and have an
00:34:47.99\00:34:49.58
organized plan so
that all the teachers and
00:34:49.59\00:34:51.73
all the kids know
what to do, that's right,
00:34:51.74\00:34:53.93
planning home
activities and exercises,
00:34:54.53\00:34:56.68
having materials and
your books on hand, other
00:34:56.69\00:34:58.36
creational
activities for your kids in the
00:34:59.22\00:35:00.75
home, there is a
website you can go to put up
00:35:00.76\00:35:03.73
by the government
called pandemicflu.gov
00:35:03.74\00:35:07.73
and it's a good site
to give you a lot of ideas
00:35:08.61\00:35:10.51
about what do you
want for the family and
00:35:10.52\00:35:12.31
what you want to have on hand,
00:35:12.32\00:35:13.69
they suggest two
weeks supply of water and
00:35:13.70\00:35:15.61
food and they suggest
talking with your family
00:35:15.62\00:35:19.84
members and deciding
how you're gonna take care
00:35:19.85\00:35:22.08
of people if they get
sick. You know a lot of people
00:35:22.09\00:35:24.37
are very dependent upon
prescription medications,
00:35:24.38\00:35:27.66
well if you can't go to
the store if you're caught
00:35:28.28\00:35:30.33
up at home with a
martial hour or something,
00:35:30.34\00:35:33.55
you might need to
have an extra supply of
00:35:34.12\00:35:36.38
medication on him, so
you might want to talk to
00:35:36.39\00:35:38.37
your doctor about
getting more of those pills
00:35:38.38\00:35:40.69
or your
pharmacists, so that you can be
00:35:40.70\00:35:42.92
prepared in case
you are hold up at home.
00:35:42.93\00:35:45.26
That's right, the other
thing you can think about
00:35:46.30\00:35:47.27
is getting involved
with your community,
00:35:47.28\00:35:48.25
asking is there a way
that I can help us prepare
00:35:49.28\00:35:51.42
for this flu influenza,
yes, and like you said
00:35:51.95\00:35:54.46
preparing your family,
you know talking to your
00:35:55.06\00:35:56.72
doctor and make sure
you have your medications,
00:35:56.73\00:35:58.02
all those things but
also maybe ways that you
00:35:58.03\00:36:00.63
can help your
community set up for to lessen
00:36:00.64\00:36:03.07
the impact if the
flu does come around,
00:36:03.08\00:36:05.22
that would be
great, and they got another
00:36:05.23\00:36:06.99
website that
you talked about the
00:36:07.00\00:36:08.47
pandamicflu.gov
discusses these plans and
00:36:08.48\00:36:11.61
options. If you go to
that website they will give
00:36:11.62\00:36:13.58
you a list of things
to have on hand, items
00:36:13.59\00:36:16.37
to have on hand
for example food,
00:36:16.38\00:36:17.93
non-perishables,
ready to eat canned, fruits,
00:36:17.94\00:36:21.79
vegetables, beans and soups,
00:36:21.80\00:36:23.67
you know protein or
fruit bars and I'm not
00:36:23.68\00:36:26.33
just gonna read the
whole list everybody but
00:36:26.34\00:36:28.27
you get the idea, go
the website and just find
00:36:28.28\00:36:31.30
out what would be
good to have on hand
00:36:31.31\00:36:33.24
in the case if pandemic
does transpire, definitely.
00:36:33.25\00:36:37.29
Also good things to
think about is personal
00:36:37.82\00:36:39.20
hygiene during
these times, well all like
00:36:39.21\00:36:41.32
to think about you
know putting on deodorant
00:36:41.33\00:36:43.21
but its more than
that, personal hygiene as
00:36:43.22\00:36:45.13
far as keeping cleanliness
in mind, can definitely
00:36:45.14\00:36:48.17
help from spreading a pandemic.
00:36:48.18\00:36:49.72
You know you might
wanna think about covering
00:36:49.73\00:36:51.18
your mouth and nose
with a tissue when you
00:36:51.19\00:36:53.37
cough or sneeze,
because again the flu is spread
00:36:53.38\00:36:56.36
by droplets,
respiratory droplets.
00:36:56.37\00:36:58.25
So if you can cover
your cough into your
00:36:58.26\00:37:00.36
mouth or sleeve you
can definitely cut down
00:37:00.37\00:37:01.75
on the amount of
virus you expose others to.
00:37:01.76\00:37:05.05
One of the important
things about preventing
00:37:06.81\00:37:10.22
the spread of
disease is preventing these
00:37:10.23\00:37:13.23
respiratory droplets
from getting around other
00:37:13.24\00:37:16.03
people and so like you
said cough in your sleeve,
00:37:16.04\00:37:19.96
cover your cough
but cleaning your hands,
00:37:19.97\00:37:22.79
you know people will
get contaminated services,
00:37:22.80\00:37:25.01
they'll touch the
contaminated surface and
00:37:25.02\00:37:27.43
they'll touch their
face and they'll just spread
00:37:27.44\00:37:29.61
the flu from the
contaminated surface
00:37:29.62\00:37:31.85
to their face. So,
washing hands frequently
00:37:31.86\00:37:34.89
is important, staying
at home if you're sick
00:37:34.90\00:37:37.57
stay at home, if
your family is sick stay
00:37:37.58\00:37:39.83
at home or if everyone
also sick stay at home,
00:37:39.84\00:37:42.60
just stay home and so
you want to avoid close
00:37:42.61\00:37:46.71
contact with other
people, we have this six foot
00:37:46.72\00:37:49.90
barrier we talk
about which is important.
00:37:49.91\00:37:51.77
The social
distancing factor, yup.
00:37:51.78\00:37:54.92
You're talking
about washing your hands,
00:37:56.08\00:37:57.32
very important
especially after contacting or
00:37:57.63\00:37:59.61
handling animals as
well, yeah, for instance
00:37:59.62\00:38:01.91
changing their
litter box or coming
00:38:01.92\00:38:03.49
in contact with
feces or your dog comes and
00:38:03.50\00:38:05.96
gives you a good lick
across the face, yeah,
00:38:05.97\00:38:08.34
wet saliva washes
across, do you know you
00:38:08.35\00:38:10.47
want to make sure
you clean that, wash that
00:38:10.48\00:38:12.46
all off, so that you
don't spread any contamination
00:38:12.47\00:38:14.51
or absorb any
contamination from that.
00:38:14.52\00:38:16.03
You also want to
make sure you don't feed
00:38:16.70\00:38:17.67
any water birds,
no, keep them around the
00:38:17.68\00:38:20.40
house you don't want that,
00:38:20.41\00:38:21.42
make sure they stay
away. Again introducing
00:38:22.56\00:38:25.34
the more feces, or
bird contact you have
00:38:25.35\00:38:27.31
around and the more
likely that you could contact
00:38:27.32\00:38:29.73
the flu from them. If
you take your dogs outside,
00:38:29.74\00:38:32.08
keep them on a
leash so they don't go and
00:38:32.75\00:38:34.44
get the flu from some
other dog, there you go.
00:38:34.45\00:38:36.58
Cats can get the flu
can carry the flu and can
00:38:38.35\00:38:40.85
spread it, yeah. You
know it reminds me our
00:38:40.86\00:38:43.06
neighbor's cat
always comes around here
00:38:43.07\00:38:44.79
for something, he catches mice,
00:38:44.80\00:38:46.79
he catches birds and
you only know if that
00:38:46.80\00:38:49.10
bird had something
the cat's gonna get it,
00:38:49.11\00:38:50.91
that's right, then the
cat will go back to the
00:38:51.46\00:38:52.65
neighbors and that's
why we're gonna quarantine
00:38:52.66\00:38:55.88
the neighbor, that's
right. Don't accept any little
00:38:55.89\00:38:58.93
gift offerings on
the front steps from your
00:38:58.94\00:39:01.17
cats, you know,
its important also,
00:39:01.18\00:39:03.28
speaking of cats
to make sure you watch
00:39:03.29\00:39:05.44
them for any signs of
sickness or if they die
00:39:05.45\00:39:07.58
especially make
sure you report that as
00:39:07.59\00:39:10.22
well because that could
be beneficial for helping
00:39:10.53\00:39:12.40
others around you, if
the government is aware
00:39:12.41\00:39:14.25
of that. The next thing
we need to talk a little
00:39:14.26\00:39:16.08
bit about is the
government's role and
00:39:16.09\00:39:19.41
a pandemic. And we
all look to the government
00:39:19.42\00:39:22.45
for a lot of things
and so we want to think
00:39:22.46\00:39:25.01
about what we can expect here.
00:39:25.02\00:39:26.90
And so the government
is very busy, helping out,
00:39:27.75\00:39:30.13
they are trying to get
communities and businesses
00:39:30.14\00:39:34.20
and organizations
to think about this,
00:39:34.87\00:39:36.86
to start planning
for a potential outbreak
00:39:36.87\00:39:39.92
of the bird flu.
They also do things like
00:39:40.44\00:39:43.77
support the manufacturer
and testing the vaccines
00:39:44.27\00:39:46.29
and of antivirals,
getting stockpiles of these
00:39:47.01\00:39:49.90
things in case the
bird flu breaks out.
00:39:49.91\00:39:52.34
And also working
with the World Health
00:39:52.86\00:39:55.16
Organization and
other nations to help detect
00:39:55.17\00:39:57.16
and contain
outbreaks. You wanna be aware
00:39:57.17\00:39:59.09
of what's going on in
the nations around us,
00:39:59.10\00:40:00.57
like you said with
the flock patterns of the
00:40:00.58\00:40:03.62
birds you know it
doesn't just affect our
00:40:03.63\00:40:06.01
society you know
what we have can be spread
00:40:06.02\00:40:07.89
somewhere else and
what they have can be
00:40:07.90\00:40:09.09
spread to us, so
being aware of what's going
00:40:09.10\00:40:11.45
on around this and
other nations can help
00:40:11.46\00:40:13.02
prevent a outbreak.
Yeah, you want to make
00:40:13.03\00:40:15.34
sure you don't go
traveling to some bird
00:40:15.35\00:40:17.95
flu hotspot over in
Asia, that's right and bring it
00:40:17.96\00:40:19.88
right back, just
stay there you know.
00:40:19.89\00:40:22.63
Definitely in
being a support system,
00:40:22.64\00:40:26.40
that are supporting
your federal, state and
00:40:26.41\00:40:27.90
local health agencies
in their efforts to prepare
00:40:27.91\00:40:30.30
for and respond to the
flu outbreak is important
00:40:30.31\00:40:32.53
as well. Of course
law enforcement's get
00:40:32.54\00:40:34.22
involved in this, I was
up at this bird flu summit
00:40:34.23\00:40:37.79
and they had all the
commissioners of the state,
00:40:37.80\00:40:39.88
they had the
police commissioner,
00:40:39.89\00:40:41.36
they also had the
general for National Guard
00:40:41.37\00:40:44.13
there, so they were
all talking about their
00:40:44.14\00:40:46.92
particular roles should
the bird flu come around.
00:40:46.93\00:40:49.80
And so the federal
government has statutory
00:40:50.74\00:40:53.38
authority to order a
quarantine to prevent the
00:40:53.39\00:40:56.43
introduction
transmission or spread of
00:40:56.44\00:40:58.65
communicable diseases
from foreign countries
00:40:58.66\00:41:01.27
into United States or
within the United States,
00:41:01.28\00:41:04.45
that's right. The
government actually can
00:41:04.46\00:41:07.04
use the quarantine
as a contact management
00:41:07.05\00:41:09.70
strategy that
separates individuals who have
00:41:09.71\00:41:12.00
been exposed to
infection but are not yet ill
00:41:12.01\00:41:14.04
from others who have
not been exposed to that
00:41:15.06\00:41:16.40
infection and
quarantine say, you volunteer
00:41:16.41\00:41:18.96
or they maybe
mandatory and you know this
00:41:18.97\00:41:21.30
could be from my house
or they might be shutting
00:41:21.31\00:41:24.12
down the borders
between countries here
00:41:24.13\00:41:26.37
in Canada say or
Mexico or between our state
00:41:26.38\00:41:29.83
and other states.
And they all the roads
00:41:29.84\00:41:31.91
mapped out, which one's to shut,
00:41:31.92\00:41:33.61
so that people don't
move around too much.
00:41:33.62\00:41:35.67
Local and state
entities are to maintain
00:41:35.68\00:41:38.35
civil order in the
event of a breakdown of
00:41:38.36\00:41:41.83
order the federal
law enforcement agencies
00:41:41.84\00:41:44.43
in the military
actually have the necessary
00:41:44.44\00:41:46.33
plans to assist the
states. Well lets think
00:41:46.34\00:41:48.70
a little bit here
for a minute on biblical
00:41:48.71\00:41:52.19
perspectives on pestilence,
00:41:52.20\00:41:55.08
because you know the
Bible has something to
00:41:55.09\00:41:57.66
say about pestilence
and I find this interesting,
00:41:57.67\00:42:00.53
and looking through
the Bible on pestilence
00:42:01.12\00:42:02.98
I didn't find
anywhere where the Bible said
00:42:02.99\00:42:05.88
well there was you
know a new mutation
00:42:05.89\00:42:08.40
and random event
and you know well we
00:42:08.41\00:42:10.28
got this bad flu
coming around. Everything
00:42:10.29\00:42:13.32
seemed to have a
purpose, a reason,
00:42:13.33\00:42:16.05
why it happened and
we start out looking like
00:42:16.83\00:42:19.58
in Leviticus and God
was telling the children
00:42:19.59\00:42:22.58
of Israel in
Leviticus 26:14, 15 and 25,
00:42:22.59\00:42:26.89
that if they didn't
follow what God wanted
00:42:26.90\00:42:29.43
them to do pretty
soon they would come down
00:42:29.44\00:42:33.27
with a pestilence. He
would send a pestilence,
00:42:33.28\00:42:35.35
so a pestilence was
kind of like a reminder,
00:42:35.36\00:42:37.86
hey guys you're not
following me anymore and
00:42:37.87\00:42:40.69
now you have a
pestilence. And often times
00:42:41.31\00:42:43.92
when the areas that
they weren't following him
00:42:44.88\00:42:46.49
he already pre told
them you know don't stay
00:42:46.50\00:42:48.39
around unclean
animals or avoid these certain
00:42:48.40\00:42:50.35
activities. He'd
given them instructions,
00:42:50.36\00:42:52.79
warnings and instructions
to avoid these because
00:42:52.80\00:42:54.62
he knew that could happen.
00:42:54.63\00:42:55.60
Moses went down
to Pharaoh, in Egypt,
00:42:56.27\00:42:58.61
and he basically told
Pharaoh. Pharaoh, if you
00:42:58.62\00:43:00.65
don't let us go and
keep our God's statues
00:43:00.66\00:43:03.91
and feasts then God's
gonna send a pestilence
00:43:04.56\00:43:06.95
on us. Well we find
that Pharaoh did not follow
00:43:06.96\00:43:11.28
what Moses was
saying, he didn't listen and
00:43:11.83\00:43:14.84
so Moses came back
the next time and he
00:43:14.85\00:43:17.19
says well Pharaoh
you won't let us go,
00:43:17.20\00:43:19.06
God's gonna give
you the pestilence.
00:43:19.60\00:43:21.49
I'm sure enough
Pharaoh had ten plagues before
00:43:21.50\00:43:23.78
he realized that
what Moses said was
00:43:24.28\00:43:25.80
actually true, that's
right, and then if we look
00:43:25.81\00:43:28.61
a little further in
the Bible the history
00:43:28.62\00:43:30.40
of pestilences,
example David, David made
00:43:30.41\00:43:33.92
some mistakes, he
did what the God told him
00:43:33.93\00:43:36.50
not to do. God sent a
pestilence in and so there
00:43:36.51\00:43:40.48
was a reason for
every pestilence.
00:43:40.49\00:43:42.75
There's a story in the
Bible by the man named Job,
00:43:43.56\00:43:45.83
yes, and he is another
example of a pestilence
00:43:46.34\00:43:48.89
this gentleman was a
good fellow but God and
00:43:49.94\00:43:54.47
Satan got in an
argument over whether Job
00:43:54.48\00:43:56.83
was a good man or
not. Satan said well let me
00:43:56.84\00:43:59.55
just test him and
God said go ahead and God
00:43:59.56\00:44:01.73
let Satan put a
pestilence on this man, on Job,
00:44:01.74\00:44:05.57
and so there's a whole
history of what happened
00:44:06.39\00:44:07.95
to Job but the whole
point of the story is
00:44:07.96\00:44:10.56
to Job but the whole
pestilence can sometimes
00:44:10.57\00:44:12.01
point of the story is
come as a result of what
00:44:12.02\00:44:13.28
the devil does. And
often not just to discipline
00:44:13.29\00:44:17.42
someone or as a
result of where they have
00:44:17.43\00:44:19.58
disobeyed God 's law
but often God can use
00:44:19.59\00:44:21.94
this as a blessing,
there is a story in John
00:44:21.95\00:44:23.86
where Jesus was
passing by men who had
00:44:23.87\00:44:26.36
been blind from the
time he was born and the
00:44:26.37\00:44:29.10
disciples asked him,
this is in John chapter 9,
00:44:29.11\00:44:31.01
disciples asked
him Master who sinned,
00:44:31.02\00:44:32.93
this man or his parents
that he should come down
00:44:32.94\00:44:35.48
this blindness? And
God said He didn't sent his
00:44:35.49\00:44:37.90
parents didn't send,
it's just so that God can
00:44:37.91\00:44:40.33
be made, manifest in
him so we can glorify
00:44:40.34\00:44:42.25
God through this. Yes,
and that's an interesting
00:44:42.26\00:44:45.03
comment because
you know a lot of Jews
00:44:45.04\00:44:48.08
thought that every
disease was the individual's
00:44:48.09\00:44:51.29
sin and what I take
from that is a pestilence
00:44:51.30\00:44:55.49
can come as a result
of a nation's sins but
00:44:55.50\00:44:59.86
those people caught
in the pestilence in that
00:44:59.87\00:45:01.95
nation may not
themselves be the one,
00:45:01.96\00:45:04.16
that's right, that
have the sin personally.
00:45:04.17\00:45:06.16
If we look at the
prophecy especially of Jesus
00:45:06.17\00:45:09.10
like in Luke 21 we find
that he predicts the time
00:45:09.61\00:45:12.33
when just before his
coming there will be more
00:45:13.48\00:45:15.86
pestilence if we read
the Luke 21:10,11 and 27
00:45:15.87\00:45:19.89
in this prophetic
chapter where Jesus is
00:45:20.42\00:45:22.10
speaking it says
Then he said unto them,
00:45:22.11\00:45:24.77
Nation will rise
against nation, well we've seen
00:45:24.78\00:45:27.43
that, definitely wars,
wars and kingdom against
00:45:27.44\00:45:31.28
kingdom. And great
earthquake shall be in
00:45:31.29\00:45:34.46
diverse places and
famines, and pestilences
00:45:34.47\00:45:38.52
and fearful sights
and great signs shall be
00:45:39.48\00:45:42.41
from heaven and then
shall they see the Son
00:45:43.17\00:45:46.19
of man, that's
another name for Jesus coming
00:45:46.20\00:45:48.54
in the clouds of
power and great glory.
00:45:48.55\00:45:51.46
So, he's told us ahead of time,
00:45:52.28\00:45:53.25
expected earthquakes,
wars, pestilences all
00:45:54.04\00:45:56.43
these seems are to
come at the end of time
00:45:56.44\00:45:57.85
before he returns,
that's right and so as we talk
00:45:57.86\00:46:00.63
about the bird flu
you know the bird flu
00:46:00.64\00:46:03.35
is a threat but it is
not the last threat or
00:46:03.36\00:46:07.02
the only threat and even
if it doesn't transpire as
00:46:07.03\00:46:09.74
the news may be
predicting or suggesting we will
00:46:09.75\00:46:12.41
see more
pestilences, more disasters,
00:46:13.07\00:46:15.93
more things happening as
we get closer of the time
00:46:16.43\00:46:18.63
of His second
coming. We read in Revelation
00:46:18.64\00:46:21.41
another concept here,
where Revelation talks
00:46:21.42\00:46:25.15
about troubles on
the earth being winds and
00:46:25.69\00:46:28.96
that there is four
angels at the four corners
00:46:29.91\00:46:32.54
of the earth
holding back these winds but
00:46:32.55\00:46:35.36
they are only holding
back those winds until
00:46:35.86\00:46:38.46
the people of God have
made all their decisions
00:46:38.95\00:46:42.06
untill the people of
God are what we call sealed
00:46:42.56\00:46:44.91
and when these people
are all sealed then the
00:46:46.23\00:46:50.92
disaster starts
coming. So, as we see more
00:46:50.93\00:46:52.96
disaster more
pestilences happening around
00:46:52.97\00:46:55.43
the earth, we know that
the sealing time is coming,
00:46:55.44\00:46:58.80
come upon us, come
upon us and so we need
00:46:58.81\00:47:01.50
to be aware of that,
that this is merely a sign
00:47:01.51\00:47:04.25
that we are gonna see
Jesus return in a short
00:47:05.00\00:47:07.49
time, that's right.
And if you look back at the
00:47:07.50\00:47:10.47
recent history you
know Jews and the plague,
00:47:11.30\00:47:12.85
people have to look
to someone to blame,
00:47:12.86\00:47:14.92
and the Jews were
often targeted for things
00:47:15.54\00:47:18.22
that were going on
even though they died
00:47:18.23\00:47:20.30
of the plague also and
there is over 350 separate
00:47:20.31\00:47:23.69
recorded massacres
of Jews during the years
00:47:23.70\00:47:25.78
of the plagues.
Because they blamed those
00:47:25.79\00:47:27.43
people for what was
going on, that's right.
00:47:27.44\00:47:29.54
You know this is very
interesting that they blame
00:47:29.55\00:47:32.05
other people and
especially they pick on certain
00:47:32.06\00:47:34.52
religious groups and
this kind of religious
00:47:34.53\00:47:37.49
discrimination has
happened down through
00:47:37.50\00:47:39.86
the history. There's
been times in the dark ages
00:47:39.87\00:47:42.73
what we call the dark
ages 1700's and before
00:47:42.74\00:47:46.55
when even Christians
were blamed for earthquakes
00:47:48.33\00:47:51.79
or for famines and
things and they were also
00:47:51.80\00:47:54.06
persecuted. Let's talk
about the cause of death
00:47:54.07\00:47:58.34
from this bird flu,
okay, because when we get
00:47:58.35\00:48:00.51
to the treatment
talk, when we talk about our
00:48:00.52\00:48:03.26
prevention talk we
will want to cover these
00:48:04.45\00:48:07.12
in great detail. Death
rates are determined by
00:48:07.13\00:48:09.59
four factors basically.
First of all the number
00:48:09.60\00:48:12.01
of people who become infected,
00:48:12.02\00:48:13.43
I mean if you're not
infected you probably
00:48:13.95\00:48:15.04
won't die, so remember
people who get infected
00:48:15.05\00:48:17.25
effects the death
rate. The next thing is how
00:48:17.26\00:48:20.75
bad the virus is, the
yearly flu doesn't kill
00:48:20.76\00:48:24.53
that many people but a
flu that was very virulence
00:48:24.54\00:48:28.27
like the 1918 bird
flu or the one that we see
00:48:28.28\00:48:30.97
happening over in
Asia could definitely kill
00:48:30.98\00:48:33.67
a lot of people.
Another factor is the underlying
00:48:33.68\00:48:38.09
characteristics
and vulnerability of
00:48:38.10\00:48:41.53
the population. How
good their immune system is,
00:48:41.54\00:48:43.90
how healthy are they as a whole.
00:48:43.91\00:48:45.13
What kind of food do
they eat, do they get
00:48:45.14\00:48:47.26
exercise and we're
gonna talk about this a lot
00:48:47.27\00:48:50.57
in talk number
two how to prevent it,
00:48:50.58\00:48:52.77
but they're doing
anything to prevent,
00:48:53.47\00:48:54.75
their immune systems are down.
00:48:54.76\00:48:56.44
If you're in a
population that has high rates
00:48:56.45\00:48:58.42
of diabetes, cancer,
high blood pressure or heart
00:48:58.43\00:49:01.49
disease and so
for you can be sure,
00:49:01.50\00:49:03.17
they also will have
a high death rate from
00:49:03.18\00:49:05.63
the bird flu, that's
right their immune systems
00:49:05.64\00:49:07.79
are already compromised,
already compromised.
00:49:07.80\00:49:10.22
The last thing that
effects the death rate is how
00:49:10.89\00:49:13.31
good the treatment
protocols are. Whether or
00:49:13.32\00:49:15.49
not we have treatment available,
00:49:15.50\00:49:17.13
so those are kind of
what we got to think about
00:49:17.14\00:49:19.27
when we're thinking
about how many people will die.
00:49:19.28\00:49:21.39
And as a matter
of fact, the date,
00:49:22.16\00:49:23.13
the people that
they have had come down
00:49:23.14\00:49:24.98
with the flu half of
them have died, yeah,
00:49:24.99\00:49:26.93
so it's a pretty
strong strain right now,
00:49:26.94\00:49:29.08
Le Thi Yen poses with
a photo of her son who
00:49:29.72\00:49:32.23
died of the avian flu
in 2004 when he was only
00:49:32.24\00:49:34.68
four years old, four
years old, that's right,
00:49:34.69\00:49:36.72
the family who
lived near her Hanoi,
00:49:37.17\00:49:38.94
Vietnam had killed a
million chickens that have
00:49:38.95\00:49:40.84
the diseases. That's
was the photo from FAO,
00:49:40.85\00:49:45.35
interesting, you know
I didn't know that eating
00:49:46.67\00:49:50.69
chickens would do it.
But here we go, you call the
00:49:50.70\00:49:54.78
sick bird in your
house and you could be in
00:49:55.49\00:49:56.96
trouble. We should
think about the yearly flu.
00:49:56.97\00:49:59.84
You know many people
don't realize what this
00:50:00.58\00:50:02.07
yearly flu is like, I
mean we know people get
00:50:02.08\00:50:04.58
it around us but it
actually has consequences
00:50:04.59\00:50:08.17
in our society,
people die of it, they don't
00:50:08.18\00:50:11.20
necessarily die
particularly just the flu,
00:50:11.21\00:50:13.48
but the flu sets
them up for pneumonia and
00:50:13.49\00:50:16.19
other diseases that
they may have already
00:50:16.70\00:50:18.48
have that causes
them to go ahead and die
00:50:18.49\00:50:20.62
that's about 36,000
deaths per year to the flu,
00:50:20.63\00:50:23.95
to the flu. Yeah,
200,000 hospitalizations,
00:50:23.96\00:50:27.30
you know I've been in
the hospital when there
00:50:27.31\00:50:28.74
has not been any beds
left and all the beds were
00:50:28.75\00:50:32.23
filled with flu people.
So there is a 5 to 20 percent
00:50:32.24\00:50:34.96
attack rate in the
general population and actually
00:50:34.97\00:50:37.94
causes lot of money about
$10 billion will it be each
00:50:37.95\00:50:41.77
year lost due to this
regular flu epidemics.
00:50:41.78\00:50:45.59
It hits people in
nursing homes especially about
00:50:46.25\00:50:48.32
a 60 percent attack
rate in nursing homes.
00:50:48.33\00:50:50.96
So, that's kind of what
the year flu is like 34,000
00:50:51.75\00:50:54.92
deaths a year about
since if you look at that
00:50:54.93\00:50:57.40
into see pandemic flu
is gonna raise that number
00:50:57.41\00:51:00.30
dramatically,
definitely, definitely.
00:51:00.31\00:51:01.43
You mentioned
pulmonary complications with the
00:51:02.12\00:51:03.75
normal flu you
know and how that can be
00:51:03.76\00:51:05.70
much more with the bird
flu, tell us about a bit
00:51:05.71\00:51:07.84
of pulmonary
complications that come along
00:51:07.85\00:51:09.88
with the bird flu. Oh!
Yes the bird flu can totally
00:51:09.89\00:51:13.84
destroy your lungs,
and what happens is the
00:51:13.85\00:51:16.64
virus comes in and
it can cause a pneumonia
00:51:16.65\00:51:19.42
I mean this virus can
just destroy your lungs.
00:51:20.07\00:51:22.07
It makes the cilia
that move the mucus out your
00:51:22.08\00:51:25.32
lungs all day, it makes
it so that lungs go into
00:51:25.33\00:51:29.10
full blown inflammation
we call it cytokines
00:51:29.11\00:51:33.86
storm, yes, cytokines
are the technical name
00:51:33.87\00:51:37.31
for the little
mediators of inflammation.
00:51:37.32\00:51:39.55
It makes your lungs
so inflame that you get
00:51:40.09\00:51:42.03
edema, they start
bleeding, they start getting
00:51:42.04\00:51:44.77
hemorrhagic
pneumonia it means blood in the
00:51:44.78\00:51:47.13
lungs and
people can die of this,
00:51:47.14\00:51:49.12
if they don't die of
that these lung cells can
00:51:49.13\00:51:51.25
get pneumonia and
that's caused by bacteria
00:51:51.26\00:51:54.67
and so the
pulmonary complications of the
00:51:54.68\00:51:57.45
bird flu are first of
all viral pneumonia but
00:51:57.46\00:52:00.88
then it can progress
to bacterial pneumonia
00:52:00.89\00:52:03.33
as a secondary
infection and it can be up
00:52:03.34\00:52:06.53
to a month after you've
had the regular viral flu.
00:52:06.54\00:52:11.42
So, if you make it
through the flu itself you're
00:52:11.74\00:52:13.67
still kind of in the
dark house so to speak,
00:52:13.68\00:52:15.78
for another month.
Yeah, you can still be
00:52:15.79\00:52:17.83
in trouble, yeah,
that's right, you're not out
00:52:17.84\00:52:19.05
of the woods yet.
There are also some
00:52:19.06\00:52:20.48
non-respiratory
complications that go along
00:52:20.49\00:52:22.39
with the bird flu. Oh!
That's right, that's right,
00:52:22.40\00:52:25.35
you can have myositis
or rhabdomyolysis which
00:52:25.36\00:52:28.70
means your muscles
breakdown, you know
00:52:28.71\00:52:31.60
people get all these
aches and pains for now,
00:52:31.61\00:52:33.66
they have their
muscles breaking down.
00:52:33.67\00:52:35.09
The muscle tissue gets
in the blood stream goes
00:52:35.68\00:52:37.66
to the kidneys
and plugs them up,
00:52:37.67\00:52:38.82
you get renal
failure. Or you can have Reye's
00:52:38.83\00:52:42.14
syndrome, this
happens when you take aspirin,
00:52:42.15\00:52:44.63
so we tell people
don't take any aspirin
00:52:44.64\00:52:46.94
if you are coming
down with the flu.
00:52:46.95\00:52:49.00
There is also your
brain, you can get infection
00:52:49.96\00:52:52.56
or an encephalitis in
your brain, all kinds of
00:52:52.57\00:52:56.36
different neurological symptoms,
00:52:56.37\00:52:58.47
part of your body
becoming paralyzed or
00:52:59.06\00:53:01.03
painful or weak and
then there is your heart,
00:53:01.04\00:53:04.69
the sack around your
heart can get inflamed,
00:53:05.44\00:53:07.17
we call it pericarditis
or you have the heart
00:53:07.18\00:53:11.20
muscles can get
inflamed, myocarditis and then
00:53:11.21\00:53:15.12
there is toxic shock
as so shared with the
00:53:15.13\00:53:17.39
Staph aureus and
acute influenza pneumonia.
00:53:17.40\00:53:21.26
So there's all kinds
of things that can happen
00:53:21.88\00:53:23.57
to rest your body
and in 1918 the bird flu
00:53:23.58\00:53:26.35
definitely attacked all
parts of the people's body.
00:53:26.36\00:53:29.52
With the so many
people dying we definitely
00:53:29.53\00:53:31.48
need to think about
what we are going to do
00:53:31.49\00:53:32.80
with all the bodies. In
the 1918 like in Pittsburgh
00:53:32.81\00:53:36.56
this was a very big
problem. They didn't know what
00:53:36.57\00:53:39.88
to do with all the
dead and these people could
00:53:39.89\00:53:41.75
still contaminate
others correct, contacting
00:53:41.76\00:53:44.02
with the dead. For a
while they couldn't find
00:53:44.03\00:53:46.55
enough undertakers,
they couldn't find people
00:53:46.56\00:53:48.34
that dig graves and
so finally they got out
00:53:48.35\00:53:52.52
the steam shovel and
dug a big trench through
00:53:52.53\00:53:55.09
the grave yard,
buried people in pine boxes,
00:53:55.10\00:53:57.63
yeah, and so it's
gonna be a big challenge,
00:53:57.64\00:54:00.98
trying to figure out
how to maintain the dignity
00:54:00.99\00:54:04.21
of the dead and the
wishes of those still living
00:54:04.22\00:54:06.52
definitely. Well you
know I was at the summit and
00:54:07.31\00:54:10.16
I went to the
religious break out session and
00:54:10.17\00:54:15.09
they were all
talking about how we're gonna
00:54:15.10\00:54:16.40
have mass funerals and
how we're going to deal
00:54:16.41\00:54:22.46
with all the people
who are left behind,
00:54:22.47\00:54:24.20
they're emotional challenges.
00:54:24.21\00:54:26.19
So, it's big
problem, you know Amber,
00:54:26.20\00:54:28.92
I was looking at a
website backtoenoch.org
00:54:28.93\00:54:33.03
and this gentlemen
had gone to Georgia
00:54:33.99\00:54:37.22
on a vacation and he
went to a field outside
00:54:37.78\00:54:42.31
Atlanta and he took a
bunch of pictures of some
00:54:42.32\00:54:45.56
interesting things
and he had I have you read
00:54:45.57\00:54:47.69
the caption he put on
his website there of what
00:54:47.70\00:54:50.42
he was up to. Yeah,
this quote to say Madison,
00:54:50.43\00:54:52.86
Georgia, about an
hour east of Atlanta,
00:54:52.87\00:54:54.94
thousands of coffin
liners are being stored
00:54:54.95\00:54:57.06
in a field. We visited
the location on Sunday,
00:54:57.07\00:54:59.90
January 30, 2005.
We were told that they
00:54:59.91\00:55:03.34
were manufactured
on contract by the
00:55:03.35\00:55:05.39
Federal Government
apparently for use in case
00:55:05.40\00:55:07.44
of a natural
disaster. We were also told that
00:55:07.45\00:55:09.94
originally about
500,000 were put there.
00:55:09.95\00:55:12.22
We asked for
permission to look around,
00:55:12.23\00:55:14.01
which we did.
Here are the photos.
00:55:14.02\00:55:15.98
Oh! We've covered
basically what the nature
00:55:16.78\00:55:21.37
of bird flu is like,
the nature of the beast,
00:55:21.38\00:55:23.99
that's right. We want
to know if that this isn't
00:55:24.60\00:55:26.76
where it stops. You
aren't stuck with this
00:55:26.77\00:55:28.83
terrible pandemic
without anything to do
00:55:28.84\00:55:31.44
about it, no
hope, you have hope,
00:55:31.45\00:55:33.54
we're gonna cover in
the next two sessions
00:55:34.29\00:55:36.31
two things, session
number two will be prevention,
00:55:37.22\00:55:39.87
how to avoid getting
it and then in the third
00:55:39.88\00:55:43.64
session we will
talk about treatment.
00:55:43.65\00:55:45.54
It can be treated and
it was treated back in 1918
00:55:45.55\00:55:49.17
with some
success, with some success,
00:55:49.18\00:55:51.62
that's right. In a
prevention lecture, we'll
00:55:51.63\00:55:54.21
talk about
sanitation, we'll talk about
00:55:54.22\00:55:56.58
inoculum control
which means how many virus
00:55:56.59\00:55:59.89
you come in contact
with, we'll talk about
00:55:59.90\00:56:02.11
vaccinations but most
of all we will talk about
00:56:02.97\00:56:05.29
how you can boost
your immune system.
00:56:05.30\00:56:08.63
What are we gonna
talk about in the third
00:56:08.64\00:56:10.19
session, well
that's gonna be achievement
00:56:10.20\00:56:11.85
session again we talk
about kind of what's been
00:56:11.86\00:56:14.09
going on with
normal medicine right now,
00:56:14.10\00:56:15.83
the drugs they're
using and we will get into
00:56:15.84\00:56:17.90
that eight natural doctors,
00:56:17.91\00:56:19.34
how you can stimulate
your immune system and
00:56:20.10\00:56:22.07
then hydrotherapy
as far as treatment
00:56:22.08\00:56:24.18
options for
people who have the flu.
00:56:24.19\00:56:25.54
Well thank you for
being with us today,
00:56:25.55\00:56:27.52
yes thank you
for being us today.
00:56:27.53\00:56:29.84